Modi Obama share tea India Today/ZumaPress

民主大国的新和谐

美国剑桥—今年早些时候,印度总理莫迪邀请美国总统奥巴马出席印度共和日(Republic Day)纪念时,这标志着全世界最大两个民主国家关系的重要变化。自20世纪90年代以来,三界美国政府都试图改善双边关系,结果喜忧参半。在此期间,两国年贸易量急剧增长,从200亿美元增加到1,000多亿美元,但中美年贸易量比印美年贸易量高出五倍多;此外,政治关系也有起有落。

两国之间彼此困惑的历史由来已久。顾名思义,与超级大国结盟永远是不平等的,因此,从长期看,与美国建立紧密关系的努力对于印度的战略自主传统不利。但美国并不把民主的印度视为威胁。相反,印度的成功是美国的一项重要利益,多个因素表明美印双边关系可以拥有更光明的未来。

最重要的因素是印度经济增长加速,国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计到2020年将超过7.5%。几十年来,印度饱受一些人所谓的“印度经济增长率”(每年只有1%略高)的困扰。也许更合适的叫法应该是20世纪30年代英国社会主义增长率。自1947年独立以来,印度采取了以重工业为重点的内向的计划体系。

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