La economía mundial con un solo motor

TOKIO – La economía mundial es como un avión a reacción comercial que debe tener todos sus motores en funcionamiento para despegar y alejarse de las nubes y las tormentas. Lamentablemente, sólo uno de esos cuatro motores está funcionando adecuadamente: la angloesfera (los Estados Unidos y su primo hermano, el Reino Unido).

El segundo motor –la zona del euro– se ha parado tras una reanudación anémica después de 2008. De hecho, con otra sacudida Europa caería en la deflación y en otro período de recesión. Asimismo, el tercer motor, el Japón, se está quedando sin combustible después de un año de estímulo fiscal y monetario y los mercados en ascenso (el cuarto motor) están desacelerándose acusadamente, a medida que los vientos de cola mundiales, que han durado un decenio –un rápido crecimiento de China, tipos de interés principales de cero, relajación cuantitativa por parte de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos y un ciclo muy positivo de los productos básicos–, se han vuelto contrarios.

Así, pues, la cuestión es si la economía mundial puede permanecer en el aire –y durante cuánto tiempo– con un solo motor. La debilidad en el resto del mundo entraña un dólar más fuerte, que invariablemente debilitará el crecimiento de los EE.UU. Cuanto más profunda sea la desaceleración en otros países y más suba el dólar, menos podrán los EE.UU. desligarse del miedo y la depresión en el resto, aun cuando la demanda interna parezca sólida.

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