De wereldeconomie vliegt op één motor

TOKIO – De wereldeconomie is als een straalvliegtuig waarvan alle motoren het moeten doen om te kunnen opstijgen en uit de buurt te blijven van wolken en stormen. Helaas functioneert slechts een van de vier motoren naar behoren: de 'Anglosphere' (de Verenigde Staten en het Verenigd Koninkrijk).

De tweede motor – de eurozone – is nu stilgevallen, na een bloedeloze herstart na de crisis van 2008. Europa is nog maar één schok verwijderd van regelrechte inflatie en een nieuwe recessie. Ook de derde motor, Japan, raakt door zijn brandstof heen na een jaar van budgettaire en monetaire impulsen. En de opkomende markten (de vierde motor) maken een scherpe groeivertraging door nu de decennialange wind in de rug – als gevolg van de snelle Chinese groei, de nulrente en de 'kwantitatieve versoepeling' van de US Federal Reserve (de Fed, het federale stelsel van Amerikaanse centrale banken) en de supercyclus in de grondstoffensector – is omgeslagen in een forse tegenwind.

De vraag is dus of en hoe lang de wereldeconomie op één motor kan blijven vliegen. Zwakte in de rest van de wereld betekent een sterkere dollar, wat onvermijdelijk zal leiden tot een verzwakking van de Amerikaanse groei. Hoe dieper de inzinking in andere landen en hoe hoger de dollarkoers, des te minder de Verenigde Staten zich zullen kunnen indekken tegen de slapte elders in de wereld, zelfs nu de binnenlandse vraag sterk lijkt.

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