Desafíos fiscales y disparates fiscales

BERKELEY – ¿Hacia dónde se dirige la economía de Estados Unidos en 2013? ¿La recuperación continuará a su ritmo frustrantemente lento? ¿O se acelerará en tanto el sector de la vivienda se recupera, el préstamo bancario se expande, los balances de los hogares mejoran y los presupuestos de los gobiernos estatales y locales se fortalecen?

Ahora que empiezan a disiparse los vientos de frente económicos, las perspectivas de Estados Unidos de un crecimiento más rápido del PBI parecen alentadoras. Pero también existe un riesgo significativo de que una dosis grande e innecesaria de austeridad fiscal debilite la demanda, mine la confianza y lleve a la economía nuevamente a una recesión.

Desde 2010, el crecimiento anual del PBI promedió alrededor del 2,1%, menos de la mitad del promedio de las recuperaciones de recesiones anteriores en Estados Unidos en los últimos 60 años. Un crecimiento lento del PBI implicó un crecimiento lento del empleo. La tasa de desempleo se mantiene aproximadamente dos puntos porcentuales más alta de lo que la mayoría de los economistas consideran consistente con una recuperación plena, y la tasa de participación de la fuerza laboral ronda mínimos históricos. La economía sigue funcionando muy por debajo de su potencial: el PBI está alrededor del 6% por debajo de lo que la economía es capaz de producir en su capacidad plena sin una mayor inflación.

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