Desafios Fiscais e Loucuras Fiscais

BERKELEY – Para onde se dirige a economia da América em 2013? A recuperação continuará ao seu ritmo frustrantemente lento? Ou acelerará à medida que o sector da habitação volte a produzir, que se expanda o crédito bancário, que melhore a conta de exploração das famílias, e que se fortaleçam os orçamentos dos governos estaduais e locais?

Com a dissipação dos ventos contrários na economia, as perspectivas dos Estados Unidos para um mais rápido crescimento do PIB parecem prometedoras. Mas também existe um risco significativo de que uma grande e desnecessária dose de austeridade fiscal reduza a procura, mine a confiança, e empurre a economia outra vez para a recessão.

Desde 2010, a média do crescimento anual do PIB foi cerca de 2.1%, menos de metade da média verificada em anteriores recuperações de recessões nos EUA durante os últimos 60 anos. O crescimento lento do PIB tem implicado um crescimento lento do emprego. A taxa de desemprego continua perto de dois pontos percentuais mais alta do que o nível considerado pela maior parte dos economistas como consistente com uma plena recuperação, e a taxa de participação da força de trabalho paira por mínimos históricos. A economia está ainda a funcionar abaixo do seu potencial: o PIB está cerca de 6% abaixo da capacidade total da economia sem uma inflação mais elevada.

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