财政挑战与财政愚昧

发自伯克利——2013年美国经济将会走向何处?经济复苏的速度还会慢得像现在这么令人沮丧么?还是会随着楼市反弹,银行信贷扩张,家庭资产负债表改善和州及地方政府预算状况增强而加速复苏?

随着经济逆风消散,美国GDP加快增长的前景似乎很有希望。但也存在这样一个风险:大幅且无必要的财政紧缩可能会削弱需求,打击信心,并使经济重陷衰退。

2010年以来,GDP年增长率平均约为2.1%,这比过去60年以来经济萧条的平均复苏增长率的一半还要低。GDP增长缓慢意味着就业增长也缓慢。现在的失业率比经济学家认为符合全面复苏的水平高出2%,而劳动力参与率则徘徊在历史最低点附近。当前经济正在远低于其潜力的水平运行:GDP规模约比发挥全部潜能而不引起通胀的水平要小6%。

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