elerian140_Kent Nishimura Los Angeles Times via Getty Images_powell inflation

误判通胀走势，美联储能克服其政策错误吗？

Dec 2, 2021 Mohamed A. El-Erian

剑桥—虽然花了很久的时间，但美联储的主要官员终于承认，数月来他们都误判了通胀飙升的走势：事实证明，通胀飙升的规模和持续时间都超出了他们的预期。认识到这一错误是件好事，尤其是考虑到未来几个月通胀仍将居高不下的可能性。由于对通胀产生了“暂时性”的根本误判，政策的沟通和实施已经变得非常复杂；要如何顺利走出这一政策领域不仅是美联储现在面临的挑战，更广泛地说，也是美国和其他主要经济体面临的挑战。

今年早些时候，美联储最初认为通胀是“暂时性”的，这一点我们可以理解。为了应对疫情，去年全球采取了经济封锁措施，因此通胀受到抑制。而尤其在今年3月到5月期间，强劲的基数效应在发挥作用，所以“暂时性通胀”这一说法看起来没什么问题。此外，政策制定者希望，随着经济继续开放，市场将迅速解决最初供不应求的问题。

到了夏天，我们中的一些人清楚地意识到，伴随这些暂时性因素而来的是长期问题。各公司正在详细说明其供应链持续中断的性质。劳动力短缺现象日益加剧，而这加剧了通货膨胀的成本驱动因素。几乎没什么公司对这两个问题会在短期内得到解决抱有期望——在一次又一次的财报电话会议上它们都这么说。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Steven Hillyard Dec 6, 2021

With the excess savings and reportedly large cash balances at firms the question becomes what will it take for the Fed to calm demand. Tapering for three or four months and then a 25 bp short term interest rate increase and waiting to see what happens is a recipe for disaster.

It will also be interesting to watch the 10 and 30 year bond auctions at the end of the week to get a feeling for the demand for new long term treasuries.
- William Sippel Dec 6, 2021
  
  If the inflation is transitory, who cares. And, if you believe it or not, OPECs price increases and supply bottleneck affected both the US and Germany, whose inflation rate is very similar to ours.
  
  And, the dollar is strong. Our interest rates are not in negative territory as are our trading partners.
  
  Maybe what is going on here is that some folks are in the carry trade...borrow abroad and arbitrage the difference.
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William Sippel Dec 4, 2021

Germany's inflation rate is 5.2% and the Fed should fix that at the same time.
- William Sippel Dec 5, 2021
  
  Of course, that was a joke, but it points to the humor of the situation: blame pointed in the wrong direction.
  
  Do some research on commodity prices, and you will find the commodity price increases were from Brazil crop failures, droughts in the West and high plains, and China's draw down of its grain stockpile during the Trump trade war, and its subsequent purchases to replenish stocks after swine flue epidemic is over.
  Top this off with a counter indicator: the dollar is strong and our interest rates are higher than the negative rates of our trading partners, and the Fed index shows that we are operating at 75% of manufacturing capacity.
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Margaret Bowker Dec 4, 2021

In some ways I agree with the Professor. It seems unlikely significant transitory inflation would be tolerated for several quarters, but the timing of any increase would need very careful consideration in the Central Banks. If it could possibly be avoided, this is not the time. The New Year is a more workable time, if any time is, perhaps February, Two more months of looking through? Unless the inflation rate shoots up, then that's different.
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Muhammad Ali Nasir Dec 3, 2021

My favourite write Mohammed but I will beg to differ
https://theconversation.com/inflation-why-its-temporary-and-raising-interest-rates-will-do-more-harm-than-good-172329
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误判通胀走势，美联储能克服其政策错误吗？

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