El regreso del dólar

LAGUNA BEACH – El dólar estadounidense está en continuo movimiento. Sólo en los últimos cuatro meses, aumentó más del 7% comparado con una canasta de más de una docena de monedas globales, y mucho más frente al euro y al yen japonés. Esta alza del dólar, producto de un progreso económico genuino y de políticas divergentes, podría contribuir al "reequilibrio" que viene eludiendo desde hace mucho a la economía mundial. Pero ese desenlace dista de estar garantizado, especialmente en vista de los riesgos relacionados de  inestabilidad financiera.

Hoy en día dos factores importantes juegan a favor del dólar, especialmente en comparación con el euro y el yen. Primero, Estados Unidos viene superando de manera constante a Europa y Japón en términos de crecimiento económico y dinamismo -y probablemente esto siga siendo así-, no sólo debido a su flexibilidad económica y su energía empresaria, sino también a su acción política más decisiva desde el inicio de la crisis financiera global.

Segundo, después de un período de alineación, las políticas monetarias de estas tres economías grandes y sistémicamente importantes están divergiendo y llevan a la economía mundial de una trayectoria de múltiples velocidades a una de múltiples pistas. De hecho, mientras que la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos terminó sus compras de títulos a gran escala, una práctica conocida como "alivio cuantitativo" (QE por su sigla en inglés), el mes pasado, el Banco de Japón y el Banco Central Europeo recientemente anunciaron la expansión de sus programas de estímulo monetario. En verdad, el presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, reveló su voluntad de expandir el balance de su institución en 1 billón de euros (1,25 billón de dólares).

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