美元的回归

拉古娜海滩—美元在行动。光是在过去四个月中,其相对一揽子十多种全球货币的汇率飙升超过7%,相对欧元和日元升至更多。美元的这一波大涨是真实经济进步和政策发展分化的结果,或许有利于世界经济长期缺乏的“再平衡”。但这一结果还远远没有板上钉钉,特别是考虑到相关金融动荡风险。

两大因素目前十分有利于美元,特别是相对欧元和日元而言。首先,美国在经济增长和活力方面表现持续优于欧洲和日本——并且可能继续保持这一优势——这不但是因为美国的经济灵活性和企业家精神,也是因为其自全球金融危机爆发以来更果断的政策行动。

其次,在经历了一段相同时期后,这三个具系统重要性的大经济体的货币政策开始趋异,将世界经济从多速轨道带向多轨轨道。事实上,美联储上个月结束了其大规模证券购买计划(称为“量化宽松”),而日本银行和欧洲央行最近才宣布扩大其货币刺激计划。事实上,欧洲央行行长德拉吉放出信号准备将欧洲央行的资产负债表一举扩大1万亿欧元。

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