美国制造的金融抑制

香港—整整一代发展经济学家都从本月刚刚去世的罗纳德·麦金农(Ronald McKinnon)的深邃洞见中汲取过大量知识养分——他在1973年的著作《经济发展中的货币和资本》(Money and Capital in Economic Development)中指出,实行金融抑制的政府将廉价资金导向政府主导的项目以降低政府债务,实际上恰恰阻挠了本国的金融发展。事实上,麦金农提供了理解新兴市场经济体的金融业发展不足的关键逻辑。

在生命的最后时刻,麦金农正致力于研究一个与金融抑制相关的概念,其具有突破性的潜力,即“美元-人民币互动的国际货币体系”。在他看来,这个中美合作的货币体系能够缓和正在破坏全球金融稳定和增长的金融抑制与分裂趋势。问题在于相关的权势方——特别是长期从美元的全球主宰地位中获益的美国利益集团——是否能够接受这样一套合作性的国际货币体系。

美元的全球主宰地位现在居然会助长金融抑制,这一概念代表了一个重大的历史变化。麦金农指出,美元之所以在二战后成为主要国际货币,是因为它帮助减少了欧洲和亚洲的金融抑制和分裂——当时,这两个地区普遍存在高通胀、负实际利率和过度监管。通过用美元锚定价格并以美联储利率作为资金成本的基准价格,定价、支付、清算、流动性和央行储备都变得更加稳定和可靠。

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