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管理美元升值风险

纽波特海滩—阿根廷总统马克里政府已经向国际货币基金组织(IMF)请求贷款,希望以此阻止比索崩盘。比索崩盘推高了阿根廷利率,将导致经济放缓,威胁到改革计划。阿根廷经济运势的逆转部分——尽管远远算不上全部——反映了美元近期升值所造成的压力。美元升值有可能会加速,因为货币政策和增长差异都有利于美国。

目前,美联储在货币政策正常化方面遥遥领先于其他具系统重要性的央行已有一段时间——即提高利率、取消大规模资产买入以及启动将持续多年的资产负债表收缩过程。今年,美元升值的另一个催化因素放大了这一领先地位:世界其他国家经济数据和预期的不太有利的分化加剧。

在2017年的大部分时间里,市场反复接收到美国之外的增长指标远比预期中更有利的情况。结果,最受关注的贸易加权美元指数去年上涨了10%。流向欧洲和主要新兴经济体的资本量大增,因为投资者希望从扩张中获益,同时又享受到更高的收益率和货币波动而带来的可能的资本利得。

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