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USA : quelle stratégie face à la dette ?

BOGOTA – Le gouvernement américain doit-il émettre des titres de dette à long terme pour profiter des taux d'intérêt extrêmement bas ? C'est une décision difficile à prendre compte tenu  d'une dette déjà très élevée (pour ne pas mentionner le besoin de financement des retraites et le passif relatif à l'assurance maladie qui vont probablement augmenter), mais l'heure est peut-être venue.

Le Trésor américain et le conseil d'administration de la Réserve fédérale ont œuvré de concert pour limiter le montant de la dette d'Etat à long terme, de manière à réduire les taux d'intérêt du secteur privé. Aussi la maturité moyenne de la dette américaine (incluant le bilan de la Fed) est-elle maintenant inférieure à trois ans, bien en dessous de celle de la plupart des pays européens, même si l'on inclut les mesures de relâchement monétaire à grande échelle de leurs banques centrales.

Jusqu'à présent la préférence en faveur d'emprunts à court terme pour stimuler l'économie avait sa raison d'être. Le taux d'intérêt sur les bons du Trésor à 30 ans étant supérieur de quelques 200 points de base à celui appliqué sur les bons à un an, l'Etat est bénéficiaire.

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