Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Advisory Board Co-Chair of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.
发自米兰——几年前,我写了一本名为《下一次大趋同》(The Next Convergence)的书,讲述发展中经济体如何在收入,财富,健康和其他人类福利方面“迎头赶上”发达国家的。我不仅关注这些国家如何实现快速增长——包括开放性全球经济所扮演的中心角色——而且还看到了这一融合过程所带来的机遇和挑战。
在撰写该书时,我曾计划在书中插入大量数据图表。但有一位受人尊敬的书籍出版代理人告诉我说使用图表并不是个好主意,因为只有少部分人能更好地吸收这种以视觉形式呈现的数量信息。我因此意识到图表在某种意义上是对问题的回答。但如果你没有提出问题,那么图表就会显得既无趣,又没有什么意义。
最近,哈佛大学心理学家史蒂文·平克(Steven Pinker)出版了一本书,记录了各项福利的长期积极趋势,他称之为“启蒙的成果”。然而平克认为进展并非总是前进式的,有时候也会随着气候变化等新挑战的出现而遭遇重大挫折。但总的来说,至少在18世纪中叶以后福利一直不断改善,工业革命更是带来了福利收益的急剧增长。自第二次世界大战以来,占全球总人口85%的发展中国家人民也有所受益。
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