Spor o zadlužení a růst

STANFORD – Nedávný spor kolem chyb ve studii ekonomů Carmen Reinhartové a Kennetha Rogoffa z roku 2010 je smutným dokladem, jaké požadavky přináší nepřetržitý mediální cyklus a jaká politicky toxická atmosféra obklopuje fiskální politiku ve Spojených státech, Evropě a Japonsku. Reinhartová s Rogoffem ve své studii s názvem „Růst v éře dluhu“ odhadli, že pokud poměr veřejného dluhu k HDP přesáhne 90%, je s tím spojený velký pokles růstu. Studie však obsahovala chyby, které objevil student Massachusettské univerzity. Po opravě je tento efekt podstatně nižší, ale přesto ekonomicky významný.

Studie Reinhartové a Rogoffa je jen malou součástí objemné akademické literatury, která ukazuje, že vysoké úrovně dluhu jsou ekonomicky riskantní. Zásadnější je otázka kauzality: stav ekonomiky rozhodně ovlivňuje fiskální postavení, stejně jako mohou zdanění, výdaje, deficity a dluh ovlivňovat hospodářský růst.

Chyby ve výzkumu nejsou v ekonomii ničím neobvyklým, ale obvykle se na ně přijde už v rané fázi, jak se to jednou stalo i mně v předpublikačním konceptu. Někdy se však omyly odhalí až později, kdy už jsou obsaženy v pracovní studii jako v případě Reinhartové s Rogoffem, případně až po publikaci, jak to potkalo nositele Nobelovy ceny Kennetha Arrowa, který musel opravit chybu v důkazu svého slavného teorému nemožnosti.

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