Die militärischen Denkmuster der Araber

Ein zentraler Aspekt, um einen Krieg – jeden Krieg – zu gewinnen, ist es, seine Ziele zu definieren. Dies gilt ganz besonders für die gegenwärtigen Kämpfe im Gazastreifen und im Libanon. Wer zu viel bewirken will – oder glaubt, mehr erreichen zu können, als machbar ist –, kann scheitern und wird mit Sicherheit enttäuscht werden.

In diesem Fall besteht der Fehler darin, zu glauben, Israel könne die Hisbollah vernichten oder als politische und militärische Kraft ausschalten. Wer Gegenteiliges behauptet, spielt der Hisbollah, Syrien und dem Iran in die Hände, die danach streben, ihren Sieg am Überleben der Hisbollah festzumachen.

Das bloße Überleben als Sieg zu definieren, ist ein für die arabische (und iranische) Politik häufig typisches Denkmuster, das gleichermaßen katastrophal wie vernünftig ist. Es ist katastrophal, weil es Niederlagen durch Angriffe auf überlegene Mächte geradezu herausfordert: Man denke an den Sechstagekrieg von 1967, Saddam Husseins Herausforderung an die USA und seinen Angriff auf den Iran, Yassir Arafats endlose, stets in Niederlagen endende Kämpfe, usw. Der arabischen Seite entstehen dabei enorme Verluste an Menschen und Material, wie jetzt wieder im Libanon und unter den Palästinensern.

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