كيف نحرك الصين

دنفر ــ ذات يوم، قال ألبرت آينشتاين: "إن الجنون هو أن تفعل نفس الشيء مراراً وتكراراً وتتوقع في كل مرة نتائج مختلفة". وبالنسبة لأولئك الذين سخروا لفترة طويلة من احتمال أن تكون الصين على استعداد للتعامل بشكل حاسم مع جارتها المؤذية كوريا الشمالية، فإن نتائج الزيارة التي قام بها جون كيري وزير الخارجية الأميركي مؤخراً إلى بكين سوف تكون متوقعة تماما.

ولكن بالنسبة لهؤلاء الذين يراقبون المشهد السياسية الداخلي الدائم التغيير بدقة، فإن ما يجري الآن يبرر رحلة كيري بكل تأكيد. وإذا كانت إدارة الرئيس الأميركي باراك أوباما قد تُنتَقَد عن تعاملها مع أحدث "أزمة" تثيرها كوريا الشمالية، فإن المشكلة الرئيسية لن تكون الإفراط في الاعتماد على الصين، بل في الإقلال من الاعتماد عليها.

وعادة تبدأ النظريات حول موقف الصين تجاه كوريا الشمالية وتنتهي بوجهة نظر مفادها أن أكثر ما تخشاه الصين هو تدفق اللاجئين إلى أراضيها في حالة انهيار كوريا الشمالية ــ وهو ما من شأنه أن يمزق النسيج العرقي الدقيق في أقاليم شمال شرق الصين. والمشكلة هنا هي أنه في حين يتخوف بعض الصينيين حقاً إزاء مسألة اللاجئين، فإن "الصين" ككل لا يمكن النظر إليها باعتبارها كياناً جماعياً واحداً يحمل وجهة نظر منفردة بشأن أي شيء، مثل أي دولة حديثة معقدة، فالصين تحتوي على العديد من وجهات النظر المختلفة حول العديد من القضايا المختلفة.

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