Una verdad heterodoxa

NUEVA YORK – ¿Quién podía pensar que, seis años después de la crisis financiera mundial, la mayoría de las economías avanzadas seguirían flotando en una sopa de letras –ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR y U-FX Int– de políticas monetarias heterodoxas? Ningún banco central había pensado en la posibilidad de adoptar alguna de esas medidas (política de cero tipos de interés, relajación cuantitativa, relajación crediticia, orientación sobre la política monetaria, tipos de depósitos negativos e intervención ilimitada en el mercado de divisas, respectivamente) antes de 2008? Actualmente han llegado a ser el pan nuestro de cada día en materia de instrumentos de las autoridades.

De hecho, tan sólo en el último año y medio, el Banco Central Europeo adoptó su propia versión de orientación sobre la política monetaria, luego pasó a la política de cero tipos de interés y después optó por la relajación crediticia, antes de decidir probar con los tipos de depósito negativos. En enero, adoptó plenamente la relajación cuantitativa. De hecho, ahora mismo la Reserva Federal, el Banco de Inglaterra, el Banco del Japón, el BCE y una diversidad de bancos centrales de economías avanzadas más pequeñas, como, por ejemplo, el Banco Nacional Suizo, han recurrido a semejantes políticas heterodoxas.

Un resultado de ese activismo mundial en materia de política monetaria ha sido una rebelión entre los seudoeconomistas y los incompetentes que hablan de los mercados en los últimos años. Esa diversidad de economistas “austríacos”, monetaristas radicales, maniáticos del oro y fanáticos del bitcoin no ha cesado de repetir que semejante aumento en masa de la liquidez mundial provocaría hiperinflación, el desplome del dólar de los EE.UU., unos precios por las nubes del oro y la desaparición tarde o temprano de las monedas fiduciarias a manos de criptomonedas digitales.

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