Eine unkonventionelle Wahrheit

NEW YORK – Wer hätte gedacht, dass die meisten entwickelten Ökonomien sechs Jahre nach der globalen Finanzkrise immer noch in einer Buchstabensuppe unkonventioneller geldpolitischer Strategien -  ZIRP (Nullzinspolitik), QE (quantitative Lockerung), CE (Kreditlockerung), FG (Forward Guidance), NDR (negativer Einlagenzins) und U-FX Int (unbeschränkte Deviseninterventionen) - schwimmen würden? Vor 2008 hätte keine Zentralbank irgendeine dieser Maßnahmen in Erwägung gezogen. Mittlerweile gehören sie zum grundlegenden Rüstzeug politischer Entscheidungsträger.

Allein in den letzten anderthalb Jahren hat die Europäische Zentralbank ihre eigene Version der Forward Guidance eingeführt, sich dann auf die Nullzinspolitik verlegt, und  vor der Entscheidung für den negativen Einlagenzinssatz eine Kreditlockerung vorgenommen. Im Januar entschied man sich für umfassende quantitative Lockerung. Mittlerweile verlassen sich Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, EZB und eine Reihe von Zentralbanken aus kleineren Industrieländern, wie die Schweizerische Nationalbank, auf derartige unkonventionelle Strategien.  

Eine Folge dieses globalen geldpolitischen Aktivismus war in den letzten Jahren ein Aufstand unter Pseudo-Ökonomen und Schreiberlingen in der Marktberichterstattung. Dieses Konglomerat aus „österreichischen” Ökonomen, radikalen Monetaristen, Goldbugs und Bitcoin-Fanatikern warnte wiederholt, dass eine derart massive Steigerung der globalen Liquidität zu Hyperinflation, dem Zusammenbruch des US-Dollars,  immens hohen Goldpreisen, und letztlich zum Untergang der Fiat-Währungen aufgrund ihrer digitalen Entsprechungen, den Kryptowährungen,  führen würde.

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