Nekonvenční pravda

NEW YORK – Kdo by si býval pomyslel, že šest let po globální finanční krizi bude většina vyspělých ekonomik stále ještě plavat v písmenkové polévce – ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR a U-FX Int – nekonvenční měnové politiky? Před rokem 2008 tato opatření (politiku nulových úrokových sazeb, kvantitativní uvolňování, úvěrové uvolňování, výhledové navádění, záporné úrokové míry z vkladů a neomezené devizové intervence) nezvažovala žádná centrální banka. Dnes je tvůrci politik mají navrchu svých brašen s nástroji.

Evropská centrální banka jen za poslední rok a půl zavedla svou verzi FG, přesunula se k ZIRP a pak se přiklonila k CE, než se rozhodla pro NDR. V lednu ovšem plně přešla na QE. O takové nekonvenční politiky se teď opírají Fed, centrální banky Velké Británie a Japonska, ECB a řada centrálních bank menších vyspělých ekonomik, například Švýcarska.

Jedním důsledkem tohoto globálního aktivismu v měnové politice je v posledních letech vzpoura pseudoekonomů a pisálků o trzích. Tato směs „rakouských“ ekonomů, radikálních monetaristů, investičních milovníků zlata a fanatiků Bitcoinu opakovaně varovala, že tak masivní rozšíření globální likvidity povede k hyperinflaci, krachu amerického dolaru, závratným cenám zlata a v posledku k zániku nekrytých měn pod údery jejich protějšků mezi digitálními kryptoměnami.

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