La incertidumbre se desplaza a China

Ahora que el dólar ha caído 43% desde su nivel más alto frente al euro, el proceso de reequilibrio financiero global está realmente en marcha. Los déficit comercial y de cuenta corriente de Estados Unidos han comenzado a contraerse en relación con el PIB del país y del mundo. Los superávit en cuenta corriente asiáticos también están a punto de empezar a contraerse, sobre todo si el crecimiento en Estados Unidos se desacelera como resultado del fin de su boom de la vivienda.

Actualmente, Europa está llevando la peor parte, puesto que el euro es la moneda que más ha aumentado y a un ritmo más veloz frente al dólar. Pero América Latina y Asia empezarán a sentir molestias también, a medida que termine el papel que Estados Unidos ha desempeñado desde hace una década como importador de último recurso en la economía global.

Mientras los desequilibrios del comercio mundial y los flujos de capital se atenúen lentamente y sin sobresaltos, la magnitud de cualquier problema económico global debería ser relativamente pequeño. Por supuesto, no les parecerá pequeño a los exportadores y sus trabajadores que pierdan sus mercados en Estados Unidos, o a los estadounidenses que dejen de tener acceso al capital barato que los extranjeros facilitan. Pero con certeza, los próximos años traerán un problema político-económico más amenazador y más grave que la atenuación de los desequilibrios globales.

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