Die Unsicherheit verlagert sich nach China

Nun, da der Dollar von seinem Höchststand gegenüber dem Euro um 43 % gefallen ist, läuft der Prozess einer Neuausrichtung der Finanzwelt definitiv an. Das Handels- und Leistungsbilanzdefizit der USA beginnt im Verhältnis zum amerikanischen und weltweiten BIP zu schrumpfen. Auch die asiatischen Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse sollten sich verringern, vor allem, wenn sich das amerikanische Wachstum im Gefolge des beendeten Eigenheimbooms merklich verlangsamt.

Momentan ist Europa am schwersten betroffen, da der Euro gegenüber dem Dollar am stärksten und schnellsten an Wert zugelegt hat. Aber auch Lateinamerika und Asien werden Schwierigkeiten zu spüren bekommen, wenn die USA ihre jahrzehntelange Rolle als weltweiter Importeur letzter Instanz nicht mehr spielen.

Solange sich die Ungleichgewichte im Welthandel und bei den Kapitalflüssen langsam und reibungslos auflösen, sollte sich das Ausmaß weltweiter wirtschaftlicher Schwierigkeiten in Grenzen halten. Selbstverständlich werden sie den Exporteuren, die amerikanische Märkte verlieren, immer noch groß genug erscheinen, ebenso wie auch den Amerikanern, die den Zugang zu billigen, von Ausländern zur Verfügung gestellten Kapital verlieren. Allerdings wird es in den nächsten Jahren mit Sicherheit zu bedrohlicheren und ernsthafteren politisch-wirtschaftlichen Problemen als der Auflösung der globalen Ungleichgewichte kommen.

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