Les incertitudes concernent désormais la Chine

Maintenant que le niveau le plus haut du dollar par rapport l’euro a chuté de 43 %, le processus de rééquilibrage financier mondial débute sérieusement. Le déficit commercial et la balance des paiements déficitaires des Etats-Unis ont reculé par rapport aux PIB américain et mondial. Les balances excédentaires de l’Asie vont elles aussi s’amoindrir, en particulier si la croissance ralentit sensiblement en Amérique au lendemain de son boum immobilier.

A l’heure actuelle, c’est surtout l’Europe qui subit les conséquences, étant donné que l’euro est grimpé plus haut et plus vite que le dollar. L’Amérique latine et l’Asie sentiront également la douleur, lorsque les États-Unis cesseront de jouer le rôle d’importateur de dernier recours, comme ce fut le cas ces dix dernières années.

Tant que les déséquilibres du commerce mondial et des mouvements de capitaux se dénoueront progressivement, tout éventuel trouble économique mondiale restera relativement faible –évidemment pas pour les exportateurs et leurs employés qui perdront leurs marchés américains, ou pour les Américains qui n’auront plus accès aux capitaux étrangers bons marché. Mais les années à venir poseront certainement un problème politico-économique plus sérieux et plus menaçant que la compensation des déséquilibres mondiaux.

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