Nejistota se přesouvá do Číny

Dnes, kdy americký dolar ztratil 43% ze svého maxima vůči euru, probíhá mohutný proces globálního finančního vyvažování. Obchodní schodek a schodek běžného účtu platební bilance Spojených států se začal ve vztahu k americkému a světovému HDP snižovat. Také asijské přebytky běžného účtu platební bilance začaly klesat, zvláště když v Americe po skončení boomu na trhu bydlení výrazně zpomalil růst.

Největší bolest v současnosti pociťuje Evropa, poněvadž hodnota eura vůči dolaru se zvýšila nejvíce a nejrychleji. Také Latinská Amerika a Asie však začnou cítit nesnáze, neboť desetiletí trvající role USA jakožto importéra poslední záchrany pro globální ekonomiku se chýlí ke konci.

Dokud se budou nerovnováhy ve světovém obchodu a kapitálových tocích vyrovnávat pomalu a hladce, veškeré globální ekonomické nesnáze by měly být relativně malé. Vývozcům a jejich zaměstnancům, kteří přijdou o americké trhy, případně Američanům, jež ztratí přístup k levnému kapitálu poskytovanému cizinci, se samozřejmě malé zdát nebudou. Následujících několik let však bezpochyby vyjeví hrozivější a závažnější politicko-ekonomický problém, než je náprava globálních nerovnováh.

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