不确定性转向中国

既然美元相对欧元已经从高位贬值43%,就说明全球金融再平衡的过程已经开始。美国的贸易和经常项赤字相对于美国和全世界的GDP已经开始缩小。亚洲的经常项盈余也即将开始萎缩,特别是如果房产泡沫破灭导致美国经济增长明显放缓。

目前,欧洲正感受着欧元相对美元升值创历史新高的切肤之痛。但随着美国长达十年的,作为世界经济中救命稻草式的进口国角色的终结,拉美和亚洲的日子也会开始不好过了。

只要世界贸易和资本流的不平衡缓慢而平滑地蔓延,任何全球性经济恶化的程度也会相对较轻。当然,这在那些失去了美国市场的出口商及其雇员,或是那些失去了获得廉价外国资本的机会的美国人看来倒并不是件小事。但在未来几年里肯定会发生一个比全球不平衡的发展更具威胁性和更为严重的政治经济问题。

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