气候变化问题上的不确定性和行动

在气候变化问题上的不确定性有很多也很大。如果我们听之任之的话,到底会有多少二氧化碳进入大气中?它会在多大程度上导致全球变暖,以及将会怎样影响当地的气候、生态系统和脆弱的物种?这些变化对生产力、人们生活的安逸和健康会产生怎样的影响?还有,当然,转而使用可再生能源以及能源节约会产生怎样的代价?

当越来越多的人了解了气候变化比如,云层和海洋的作用,越来越多的不确定性出现了。然而,温室“理论”,就像它有时被轻蔑地称呼的,已经在负责任的质疑声中被建立了起来。现在对于数量的参数存在不确定,而对于最近几十年的变暖是否完全应该归因于“温室效应”也存在质疑声。但是科学争论并没有涉及到全球变暖的本质。

如果我们知道地球正在变暖,只是不确定它有多快以及对全球的气候会产生怎样的影响,那么我们最迫切需要采取的步骤是什么呢?首先肯定是继续研究气候现象以及它们对生态环境的影响。其次是推动对修补措施的研发工作。我们迫切需要弄明白有哪些物质可以替代矿物燃料,多少能源可以被节约,怎样把二氧化碳从大气层中提取出来,以及,如果必要的话,怎样提高地球的反照率,即它对照射过来的阳光的反射能力。

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