La crescita volatile della Cina

MILANO – L'incertezza sulle prospettive economiche della Cina sta scuotendo i mercati globali - anche perché a così tante domande è così difficile dare delle risposte. In realtà, la traiettoria della Cina è diventata quasi impossibile da prevedere, a causa dei segnali confusi - se non conflittuali - inviati dai policymaker.

Nell’economia reale, il settore commerciale guidato dall'esportazione si sta contraendo, a causa della debolezza della domanda estera. A fronte di una crescita lenta in Europa e in Giappone, della crescita moderata negli Stati Uniti e delle gravi sfide nei paesi in via di sviluppo (con l'eccezione dell'India), il motore del commercio cinese ha perso molto del suo vigore.

Allo stesso tempo, però, l'aumento della domanda interna ha mantenuto il tasso di crescita della Cina relativamente alto - una prodezza che è stata raggiunta senza un aumento sostanziale dell’indebitamento delle famiglie. Mentre i consumi privati sono aumentati, i servizi si sono moltiplicati, generando occupazione per molti. Questa è la prova evidente di un riequilibrio economico sano.

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