Chinas schwankungsanfälliges Wachstum

MAILAND – Die Unsicherheit über Chinas wirtschaftliche Aussichten trübt derzeit die Stimmung an den Weltmärkten – nicht zuletzt, weil so viele Fragen so schwer zu beantworten sind. Tatsächlich lässt sich Chinas weitere Entwicklung inzwischen kaum noch vorhersagen, was an den von der Politik ausgesandten verwirrenden, wenn nicht gar widersprüchlichen Signalen liegt.

In der Realwirtschaft schrumpft aufgrund der schwachen Auslandsnachfrage der exportorientierte Sektor handelbarer Güter. Angesichts des langsamen Wachstums in Europa und Japan, des moderaten Wachstums in den USA und ernsthaften Herausforderungen in den Entwicklungsländern (mit Ausnahme Indiens) hat der chinesische Wachstumsmotor viel von seiner Kraft verloren.

Zugleich jedoch bleibt Chinas Wachstumsrate aufgrund der steigenden Binnennachfrage relativ hoch – eine Leistung, die ohne wesentlichen Schuldenanstieg bei den privaten Haushalten erreicht wurde. Mit Ausweitung des privaten Konsums haben die Dienstleistungen zugelegt und eine hohe Zahl an Arbeitsplätzen geschaffen. Dies ist ein klarer Beleg für eine gesunde wirtschaftliche Neuausrichtung.

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