Volatilité de la croissance chinoise

MILAN – Les marchés mondiaux sont chahutés par les incertitudes liées à l'avenir de l'économie chinoise – notamment parce qu'il est difficile de répondre à nombre de questions. En raison des signaux confus, si ce n'est contradictoires, envoyés par les responsables politiques chinois, il est devenu pratiquement impossible d'anticiper la trajectoire que va suivre l'Empire du Milieu.

Dans l'économie réelle, les exportations diminuent du fait de la faiblesse de la demande extérieure. Confronté à une baisse de la croissance en Europe et au Japon, à une croissance incertaine aux USA et à de sérieux défis dans les pays en développement (à l'exception de l'Inde), le moteur du commerce chinois s'essouffle.

La hausse de la demande intérieure permet cependant de maintenir le taux de croissance de la Chine à un niveau relativement élevé – un exploit dû à l'augmentation marquée de l'endettement des ménages chinois. La croissance de la consommation de ces derniers a permis aux services de proliférer et de susciter de nombreuses créations d'emploi. C'est le signe manifeste d'un rééquilibrage économique réussi.

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