النمو المتقلب في الصين

ميلانو ــ تعيش الأسواق العالمية حالة من الانزعاج الشديد بسبب عدم اليقين بشأن آفاق الصين الاقتصادية ــ خاصة وأن العديد من الأسئلة بات من الصعب للغاية الإجابة عليها. وفي واقع الأمر، يكاد يكون من المستحيل الآن التنبؤ بمسار الصين، نظراً للإشارات المربكة المتناقضة التي يرسلها صناع السياسات.

ففي الاقتصاد الحقيقي، يشهد القطاع القابل للتداول والمدفوع بالتصدير انكماشاً ملموسا، وذلك نظراً لضعف الطلب الخارجي. وفي مواجهة تباطؤ النمو في أوروبا واليابان، والنمو المعتدل في الولايات المتحدة، والتحديات الخطيرة في البلدان النامية (باستثناء الهند)، فَقَدَ المحرك التجاري الصيني الكثير من قوته.

ولكن في الوقت نفسه، ساعد الطلب المحلي المتزايد الارتفاع في الإبقاء على معدل النمو في الصين مرتفعاً نسبيا ــ وهو الإنجاز الذي تحقق من دون زيادة كبيرة في مديونية الأسر. ومع توسع الاستهلاك الخاص، تكاثرت الخدمات، فتولدت فرص العمل لكثيرين. وهذا دليل واضح على إعادة التوازن إلى الاقتصاد على النحو الصحيح.

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