我们在下什么注?

拉古娜海滩—当我思考全球经济和市场前景时,我都会大吃一惊:世界在三大基本结果上下了巨大的集体赌注。这三个结果是:向实质性更高、更包容的全球增长的转变、避免政策错误以及预防市场事故。尽管所有者三个结果毫无疑问都是值得追求的,但不幸的现实是,它们还远远不能称之为确定——下注于它们而不对冲也许会给我们和子孙后代带来巨大的风险。

这一赌注的第一项——更包容的全球增长——认为美国经济将持续复苏,强健的工资增长将让今年的增长率达到3%。该赌注还认为中国年增长率将稳定在6.5—7%,因此影子银行体系杠杆过高的风险将可以逐步消化,即使经济增长引擎继续从出口和公共资本支出转变为国内消费和私人投资。

下注于更包容的增长的另一个更加不确定的假设是欧元区和日本将能够摆脱低增长、避免通缩。低增长和通缩迫使家庭和企业推迟购买决定,从而制约已然十分疲软的经济表现。最后,该赌注认为石油出口国——如尼日利亚、委内瑞拉,特别还有俄罗斯——将成功避免经济崩溃,即使全球油价暴跌。

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