Los desequilibrios en Europa

BRUSELAS – Los gobiernos del G-20 han declarado que deben evitarse las devaluaciones competitivas (o guerras de divisas). También afirman que se deben vigilar, y tal vez combatir de manera coordinada, los desequilibrios externos excesivos.

Esas resoluciones parecen tibias, pero no hay motivo para abordar estos problemas de otra forma. Después de todo, no hay instrumentos para hacer cumplir reglas estrictas a nivel global y es probable que la corrección de los desequilibrios mundiales actuales – tal vez mediante una revaluación del renminbi y el cambio en China a un modelo de crecimiento basado en una demanda interna más fuerte – sea simplemente cuestión de tiempo.

No obstante, los desequilibrios internos de Europa son un problema mucho más complejo. El G-20 decidió no ocuparse del asunto y acordó tratar a los 27 miembros de la Unión Europea como una sola región. Si se le define así, el problema desaparece, porque el déficit en cuenta corriente de la UE en su conjunto es de apenas alrededor del 0.35% de su PIB, aunque los países miembros tienen individualmente posiciones externas muy diferentes.

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