安理会的信誉测试

堪培拉——联合国安理会成员国将于2015年举行重组,但此次重组不会有什么明显动作。美、英、法、俄、中等二战战胜国将继续拥有包厢席位并掌握否决权。而新西兰、西班牙、安哥拉、马来西亚和委内瑞拉等五个新的非常任理事国将依据两年轮换制分别顶替澳大利亚、卢森堡、卢旺达、韩国和阿根廷的席位。其余五个看台席位下一年将继续由乍得、智利、约旦、立陶宛和尼日利亚占据。

除尼日利亚外,包括巴西、德国、印度、日本和韩国在内的二十一世纪的其他主要力量没有一个能够进入安理会。所有安理会结构改革努力全都陷于停滞,就连禁止非常任理事国任满后立即改选,从而使连任成为可能(如果不是成为正式常任理事国)的改革也未能例外。

重建安理会以确保最有影响力的大国始终占据一席之地并非最急迫的改革,但却仍然是最重要的改革之一。安理会作为最重要的决策者在和平安全问题上的体制合法性不能被视为理所当然。如果安理会继续我行我素,那么其在世界多数国家眼中的公信力和权威性降低到危险的程度就仅仅是个时间问题(最多可能还需要15年)。

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