Shell Oil drilling platform Tom Doyle/Flickr

Блокбастер Парижской конференции

ОТТАВА – Декабрьская конференция Организации Объединенных Наций по изменению климата в Париже продемонстрирует ту самую отрепетированную хореографию голливудского блокбастера. Участвуют несчитанные актеры: президенты и премьер-министры в центре сцены, а их поддерживают еще тысячи людей в массовке, включая протестующих, Омоновцев, и микроавтобусов СМИ. Сценарий хоть и не известен, но сюжет уже просочился до публики: на этот раз, в резком контрасте с неудачными переговорами в Копенгагене в 2009 году, планета всё-таки победит.

Это соблазнительный сюжет, но не правдоподобный. Ведь под конец, нам скажут, что добрая воля и торг окупились. Правительства согласятся на добровольное сокращение выбросов парниковых газов, что позволит предотвратить отопление планеты на более чем 2° Цельсия. Затем, в потрясающем повороте событий, будет объявлено что главные мировые производители ископаемых видов топлива – так называемые гиганты – договорились достичь нулевых чистых выбросов к 2100 году, путем накопления углерода, высасывая его из атмосферы и храня его под землей. Планета будет спасена и экономика будет процветать свободно. Потом начнется музыка и пойдут титры.

Беда в том, что этот сценарий – лишь вымысел, а не документальный фильм. Необходимая технология еще не изобретена, а довести чистые выбросы до нуля просто невозможно. Как и настоящая голливудская продукция, достижения и урок Парижской конференции будут под сильным влиянием тех, у кого больше всего денег.

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