Shell Oil drilling platform Tom Doyle/Flickr

La superproduction du changement climatique à Paris

OTTAWA – La Conférence des Nations Unies sur le Changement climatique à Paris en décembre présentera toutes les valeurs soigneusement mises en scène dans une superproduction hollywoodienne. Le casting sera énorme : les présidents et les Premiers ministres en vedette, soutenus par des milliers de figurants, des manifestants, la police anti-émeute et des médias par bus entiers. Le scénario est peut-être encore sous le boisseau, mais l'intrigue a déjà filtré : cette fois, contrairement aux négociations ratées de Copenhague en 2009, la planète va gagner.

L'intrigue est séduisante, même si elle ne tient pas tout à fait la route. Le monde entier se rendra compte à quel point la bonne volonté et d'âpres négociations peuvent finir par payer. Les gouvernements se sont mis d'accord sur des réductions volontaires des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, visant à empêcher un réchauffement de la planète de plus de 2° Celsius. Puis par un deus ex machina renversant, on dévoilera que les plus grandes entreprises de combustible fossile du monde (les fameuses supermajors) ont accepté d'apporter les émissions nettes à zéro d'ici 2100, en capturant le carbone à la source, en l'aspirant dans l'atmosphère pour mieux le stocker dans le sous-sol. La planète sera sauvée et l'économie sera libre de prospérer. Envoyez la musique et le générique de fin.

Le problème est que ce scénario est une fiction, pas un documentaire. La technologie nécessaire n'a pas encore été inventée et ramener les émissions nettes à zéro n'est tout simplement pas possible. Et comme dans une production hollywoodienne, le message de la Conférence de Paris va être fortement influencé par ceux qui ont le plus d'argent.

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