O Voto da Ucrânia e o Destino da Rússia

ESTOCOLMO – Quando os eleitores da Ucrânia forem às urnas a 26 de Outubro, não estará em causa apenas o destino do seu país; também estará em causa o futuro de uma parte significativa da Europa. Em termos simples: o futuro da Ucrânia decidirá o futuro da Rússia, e o futuro da Rússia terá um impacto substancial no futuro da Europa.

Quando a União Soviética colapsou há mais de duas décadas, e a Ucrânia optou pela independência, muitos esperaram que o país evoluísse mais do que a Rússia nos anos seguintes. Mas os acontecimentos evoluíram de modo diferente.

Durante a primeira década do novo século, a Rússia beneficiou do efeito combinado de uma antiga indústria de hidrocarbonetos tornada mais eficiente pela privatização na década de 1990, e dos elevados preços do petróleo. A reversão da procurada diversificação económica, e a redução da “modernização” a pouco mais que um chavão, não causaram preocupações imediatas.

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