Élections ukrainiennes et destin de la Russie

STOCKHOLM – Lorsque les électeurs ukrainiens se rendront aux urnes le 26 octobre prochain, non seulement se jouera le destin de leur pays, mais également l’avenir d’une partie significative de l’Europe. En quelques mots, le futur de l’Ukraine sera déterminant quant à celui de la Russie, et l’avenir de la Russie décisif pour l’Europe de demain.

Lorsque s’est effondrée l’Union soviétique il y a plus de vingt ans, et que l’Ukraine a opté pour l’indépendance, beaucoup s’attendaient à voir le pays s’en sortir plus favorablement que la Russie au cours des années qui suivraient. L’histoire en a toutefois voulu autrement.

Au cours de la première décennie de ce siècle, la Russie a bénéficié d’une dynamique combinant d’une part l’optimisation de l’ancienne industrie des hydrocarbures, via une privatisation dans les années 1990, et d’autre part un haut niveau des prix du pétrole. L’inversion de la démarche de diversification de l’économie, de même que la réduction du terme « modernisation » à un simple slogan, ne suscitèrent aucune inquiétude immédiate. 

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