La adicción de Ucrania por el dólar

KIEV – La inflación en Ucrania se está disparando. Para marzo había llegado al 26% anual y sigue creciendo. Aunque los precios están aumentando en todo el mundo, la inflación en Ucrania es extrema, el doble de la de su vecina Rusia. Sorprendentemente, en lugar de tratar de detener la inflación, el banco central de Ucrania la está alimentando.

Los precios en el país comenzaron a salirse de control más o menos al mismo tiempo que Yuliya Tymoshenko regresó como primer ministro en diciembre pasado. Algunos observadores mal intencionados sugieren que ella tiene la culpa por llevar a cabo políticas de gasto social populista, pero eso es falso. De hecho su gobierno recortó el presupuesto justo antes del Año Nuevo. En efecto, el ministro de finanzas, Viktor Pynzenyk, informa que el Estado tuvo un superávit presupuestal del 0.6% del PIB durante el primer trimestre de 2008.

Esto no es sorprendente, porque los ingresos del Estado crecen con el aumento de los precios, mientras que los gastos son fijos en buena medida. Pero en realidad el gobierno de Tymoshenko ha realizado una buena labor fiscal. En general las finanzas públicas están en buen estado, con una deuda pública de apenas el 11% del PIB. Según el Banco Nacional de Ucrania (BNU), las reservas internacionales han crecido de manera sostenida y ahora son de 33 mil millones de dólares.

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