Die Dollarabhängigkeit der Ukraine

KIEW – In der Ukraine steigt die Inflation sprunghaft an. Im März erreichte sie einen Wert von 26 %  pro Jahr und der Trend nach oben hält weiter an. Obwohl die Preise weltweit steigen, ist die Inflation in der Ukraine extrem, nämlich doppelt so hoch wie im benachbarten Russland. Aber erstaunlicherweise schürt die ukrainische Zentralbank die Inflation, anstatt etwas dagegen zu unternehmen.

Die Preise in der Ukraine begannen ungefähr zu dem Zeitpunkt aus dem Ruder zu laufen, als Julia Timoschenko letzten Dezember als Premierministerin zurückkehrte. Böswillige Beobachter meinen, dass wohl sie aufgrund ihrer Politik der populistischen Sozialausgaben für diese Preisentwicklungen verantwortlich sei. Das ist aber falsch. Vielmehr sorgte ihre Regierung kurz vor Neujahr für eine Straffung des Budgets. Tatsächlich berichtet Finanzminister Viktor Pynzenyk, dass man im ersten Quartal 2008 einen Budgetüberschuss von 0,6 % des BIP aufweist.

Das ist auch keine Überraschung, denn bei steigenden Preisen erhöhen sich die Staatseinnahmen, während die Ausgaben größtenteils gleich bleiben. Aber Timoschenkos Regierung hat in Wahrheit eine solide haushaltspolitische Leistung geliefert. Die Staatsfinanzen sind insgesamt in guter Verfassung, wobei die Staatsschulden lediglich 11 % des BIP betragen. Laut Angaben der Nationalbank der Ukraine (NBU) sind die internationalen Reserven kontinuierlich gestiegen und haben mittlerweile einen Wert von 33 Milliarden Dollar erreicht.

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