Perché l'Ucraina ha bisogno di armarsi

MONACO DI BAVIERA – Tra i diplomatici e gli analisti l’idea che il conflitto tra Russia e Ucraina non possa avere una soluzione militare è diventata una specie di mantra. L'unica via percorribile per giungere alla pace e alla stabilità, sostengono gli osservatori quasi all'unisono, è quella diplomatica. Tuttavia, nonostante il recente accordo per il cessate il fuoco siglato a Minsk, il protarsi delle violenze – con la brutale espulsione delle forze ucraine dalla città di Debaltseve – sottolinea che è giunto il momento di trovare un modo per contrastare qualunque soluzione militare imposta dal Cremlino.

Tre influenti think tank americani l'hanno fatto e sono giunti alla conclusione che gli Stati Uniti dovrebbero fornire all'Ucraina non soltanto più aiuti “non letali” – come droni, Humvees blindati e supporto medico – ma anche "assistenza letale militare", sotto forma di missili leggeri anti-blindati. I governi europei, tuttavia, non sembrano intenzionati a rivedere la propria posizione sulla fornitura di armamenti difensivi all'Ucraina, reiterando invece che l'unica soluzione resta quella diplomatica.

Naturalmente, dal punto di vista dell'Ucraina, uno scontro militare diretto con la Russia non è un'alternativa possibile. L'anno scorso, quando sembrava che le forze separatiste nel Donbass stessero per crollare sotto il peso della controffensiva ucraina, si pensò per un momento che l'Ucraina potesse riuscire a riaffermare la propria sovranità sulla regione. Il Cremlino, però, si affrettò a impiegare gruppi tattici di battaglione per sostenere i ribelli. Le forze ucraine, in confronto relativamente deboli, non ebbero alcuna chance.

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