L'Ukraine, le FMI et le reprofilage de la dette

CAMBRIDGE – L'Ukraine est minée par l'insécurité - l'insécurité géopolitique, mais aussi économique. Sa production est en chute libre, son déficit extérieur explose et le coût de ses emprunts atteint des sommets alors qu'elle a plus que jamais besoin de financements.

Le FMI qui a conscience de ce danger a approuvé en avril un prêt de 17 milliards de dollars pour stabiliser son économie et éviter qu'elle ne se trouve en défaut de paiement. Mais il a péché par excès d'optimisme quant aux perspectives du pays et à sa capacité à assainir sa situation financière. Il est maintenant évident que les 17 milliards ne suffiront pas.

Le FMI espérait que les tensions avec la Russie allaient se dissiper et inciter de nouveaux prêteurs à intervenir. Il s'est passé l'inverse : la prolongation du conflit a compliqué l'évaluation des risques et restreint les possibilités de financement extérieur pour l'Ukraine, ce qui accroît la probabilité d'un défaut de paiement désordonné.

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