乌克兰债务难题

美国剑桥—不安全性正在困扰乌克兰——不光是地缘政治不安全性,还有经济不安全性。产出崩盘。外债暴增,随着融资问题的日益紧迫,借贷成本也开始飙涨。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)认识到这一危险,在4月批准了170亿美元贷款以稳定乌克兰经济、避免违约。但IMF对乌克兰前景和填补融资空缺的能力太乐观了。如今,170亿美元显然是不够的。

IMF希望与俄罗斯的紧张局面可以缓解,以使其他贷款人跟进。相反,持续冲突让风险评估更加复杂化了,也堵塞了基辅获得外部融资的途径,提高了灾难性债务违约的可能性。

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