uber app Bernard Weil/ZumaPress

我们所熟悉的打工时代的结束

巴黎——1983年,美国经济学家兼诺贝尔经济学奖得主瓦西里·列昂惕夫做出了在当时称得上是令人震惊的预测。他说就像拖拉机取代马匹那样,人力最终可能会被机器所取代。今天,全球失业人口约为2亿——2008年这一数字仅有3,000万——列昂惕夫的预言似乎已经不像从前那样荒诞了。事实上,技术正在彻底改变全球劳动力市场已经没有任何疑问。

可以肯定,许多经济学家有理由对像列昂惕夫那样的预言持怀疑态度。从历史上看,提高生产力极少消灭工作。每次机器提高效率(包括当时由拖拉机接替马匹),在旧工作消失的同时又创造出新的工作。此外,经济学家擅长与数字打交道,而最近的数据显示生产率提高导致经济放缓而不是加速。谈到现有工作的实际数量,我们有理由对灾难预言家的可怕预言持怀疑态度。但同时也有理由认为工作的性质正在发生变化。

首先,正如麻省理工学院经济学家大卫·奥托尔所说,有些工作受劳动自动化的影响要大于其他工作。负责数据处理等常规任务的工人越来越有可能被机器取代;但从事更具创造性工作的劳动者则更有可能感受到生产力的提高。此外,面对面服务者的工作可能不会有多大变化。换言之,机器人可能会让会计失去工作、提高外科医生的工作效率,而理发师的工作则不会有任何变化。

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