uber app Bernard Weil/ZumaPress

我们所熟悉的打工时代的结束

巴黎——1983年,美国经济学家兼诺贝尔经济学奖得主瓦西里·列昂惕夫做出了在当时称得上是令人震惊的预测。他说就像拖拉机取代马匹那样,人力最终可能会被机器所取代。今天,全球失业人口约为2亿——2008年这一数字仅有3,000万——列昂惕夫的预言似乎已经不像从前那样荒诞了。事实上,技术正在彻底改变全球劳动力市场已经没有任何疑问。

可以肯定,许多经济学家有理由对像列昂惕夫那样的预言持怀疑态度。从历史上看,提高生产力极少消灭工作。每次机器提高效率(包括当时由拖拉机接替马匹),在旧工作消失的同时又创造出新的工作。此外,经济学家擅长与数字打交道,而最近的数据显示生产率提高导致经济放缓而不是加速。谈到现有工作的实际数量,我们有理由对灾难预言家的可怕预言持怀疑态度。但同时也有理由认为工作的性质正在发生变化。

首先,正如麻省理工学院经济学家大卫·奥托尔所说,有些工作受劳动自动化的影响要大于其他工作。负责数据处理等常规任务的工人越来越有可能被机器取代;但从事更具创造性工作的劳动者则更有可能感受到生产力的提高。此外,面对面服务者的工作可能不会有多大变化。换言之,机器人可能会让会计失去工作、提高外科医生的工作效率,而理发师的工作则不会有任何变化。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/3z8ZLoR/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now