El futuro de dos velocidades de Europa

PARIS – Durante tres años, la crisis del euro amenazó no sólo con desbaratar la eurozona, sino con llevarse consigo a toda la Unión Europea. Si bien la presión de los mercados financieros se ha moderado, por ahora, una resolución a largo plazo de la crisis sigue siendo una prioridad existencial para la UE.

En la economía global altamente competitiva de hoy, el tamaño relativamente pequeño de los países europeos, las poblaciones que envejecen y el excesivo endeudamiento, combinados con una falta de recursos energéticos y una inversión insuficiente en investigación y desarrollo, implican que sus altos niveles de vida y sus estados benefactores generosos están en peligro. Individualmente, no pueden competir con los mercados emergentes; necesitan una UE fuerte para enfrentar los desafíos planteados por la globalización. 

Pero la arquitectura de la eurozona -en la que la política monetaria está centralizada, pero las políticas presupuestaria y económica quedan en manos de los gobiernos individuales- no es viable en el largo plazo. Si bien los líderes de Europa han hecho algunos progresos en materia de reforma institucional, las medidas adoptadas hasta el momento no conducirán a una convergencia real de las políticas económica y presupuestaria, o a una genuina unión económica. Como resultado, no lograrán apaciguar a los mercados financieros.

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