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关于自动化的两大误区

发自伯克利——机器人、机器学习和人工智能有望从根本上改变工作的本质。每个人都知道这一点,或至少他们觉得自己是知道的。

具体地说,他们认为自己知道两件事。首先,受威胁的工作岗位要比以往任何时候更多,正如一则新闻头条所写“福瑞斯特研究公司(Forrester Research) 预计人工智能自动化将在2018年消灭9% 的美国就业岗位”;而另一条则写道“麦肯锡:在 2030年1/3 的美国工人可能会因自动化失业”。

这类报导给人留下了这样的印象,即技术进步和工作消减正双双急剧加速。但没有证据表明这两种趋势确实存在。事实上在美国和整个发达世界中,作为技术变革速度最佳概括性指标的全要素生产率自2005年以来就已经陷入停滞了。

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