摆在欧洲面前的两条路

慕尼黑——欧元区内部公债利息再次出现了差异,这一幕在欧元引入前夕曾经发生过。收支平衡之间的差异正在逐渐拉大。主权财富危机正在从外围向核心蔓延,资本外逃正在加速。夏季以来,意大利和法国的净资本流出高达3 000亿欧元。

法国央行和意大利央行的印钞机开足了马力以应对资金外逃。但这只能令外逃加速,因为创造更多的钱阻止了利率的上升,使得两国的利率不足以吸引资本留在国内。

如果欧洲能有如同美国那样的规则——地区联邦储备银行要创造货币,必须向美联储支付用黄金作为抵押的证券——那么它们就不会造出那么多额外的货币了,资本外逃也可以得到遏制。与此相反,地方央行的印钞行为本质上是在助长和加速资金外逃。

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