Две степени искажения фактов

КОПЕНГАГЕН - Конференция ООН в Бали, посвященная изменению климата, оставила меньше воспоминаний о «дорожной карте», которая, в конечном счете, была на ней создана, чем о неприятном столкновении между США и большей частью остального мира, которое приковало внимание людей, следивших за конференцией. Активисты-экологи жестко критиковали Америку за ее сопротивление давлению со стороны Европейского союза, который пытался установить особые температурные стандарты - а именно, поставить перед собой цель, чтобы глобальное потепление не повышало температуру более чем на 2°C (3,6°F) от температур доиндустриальной эпохи.

Эта цель стала истинной заповедью для активных участников кампании, с тех пор, как ЕС принял ее в 1996 году. СМИ часто вспоминают об этой цели, иногда напоминая, что если она не будет достигнута, то изменение климата может стать очень опасным для человечества. На самом деле, с научной точки зрения результат этой цели не доказан, а предположение, что мы могли бы ее достигнуть совершенно неправдоподобно.

Остановка роста температуры на отметке не более 2°C потребовала бы драконовских и немедленных сокращений эмиссии газов - для ОЭСР такое сокращение означало бы 40-50% уменьшение от ожидаемого ими уровня в течение всего 12 лет. Даже если бы был найден политический компромисс, стоимость воплощения такой цели была бы феноменальной: одна модель оценивает полную глобальную стоимость приблизительно в 84 триллиона долларов, в то время как экономический эффект составил бы лишь одну седьмую от этой суммы.

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