Um zwei Grad verdreht

KOPENHAGEN – An die von den Vereinten Nationen organisierte Klimakonferenz in Bali wird man sich weniger wegen der „Roadmap“ erinnern, die sie schließlich hervorbrachte, als wegen eines unschönen Zusammenstoßes zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und einem Großteil der übrigen Welt, der die Zuschauer nicht losließ. Umweltaktivisten verunglimpften Amerika, da es Widerstand gegen den Druck der Europäischen Union leistete, sich auf bestimmte Temperaturziele festzulegen – nämlich die Erderwärmung auf höchstens 2°C gegenüber den vorindustriellen Temperaturen zu beschränken.

Dieses Ziel ist zu einem regelrechten Gebot der Aktivisten geworden, seit die EU es 1996 angenommen hat. Die Medien nehmen häufig Bezug darauf, wobei manchmal berichtet wird, dass der Klimawandel für die Menschheit sehr gefährlich würde, wenn dieses Ziel nicht erreicht wird. In Wahrheit ist dieses Ziel wissenschaftlich nicht belegt, und die Andeutung, dass wir es erreichen könnten, absolut unglaubwürdig.

Die Temperaturen um nicht mehr als 2°C steigen zu lassen, würde eine äußerst strenge und sofortige Senkung der Emissionen bedeuten – für die OECD müsste die Verringerung in nur 12 Jahren zwischen 40 und 50 % unter ihrem zu erwartenden Ausstoß liegen. Selbst wenn ein politischer Konsens erreicht werden könnte, wären die Kosten immens: In einem Modell wird geschätzt, dass die weltweiten Kosten insgesamt ca. $ 84 Billionen betragen würden, während der wirtschaftliche Nutzen lediglich auf ein Siebtel dieses Betrags kommen würde.

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