Dva stupně překrucování

KODAŇ – Na konferenci o změnách klimatu, kterou Organizace spojených národů zorganizovala na Bali, se nebude vzpomínat ani tak kvůli „cestovní mapě“, jež z ní nakonec vzešla, jako spíše kvůli ošklivému střetu mezi Spojenými státy a velkou částí zbytku světa, která vyvolala u přihlížejících úžas. Ekologičtí aktivisté hanobili Ameriku, neboť prý vzdoruje tlaku Evropské unie, aby se předem zavázala k plnění konkrétních teplotních cílů – totiž že by se globální oteplení mělo omezit na maximálně 2°C (3,6°F) nad úroveň teplot před průmyslovou revolucí.

Pro aktivisty se tento cíl stal faktickým příkazem doby už v roce 1996, kdy ho EU přijala. Sdělovací prostředky na něj často odkazují a někdy tvrdí, že nebude-li splněn, změny klimatu budou pro lidstvo velmi nebezpečné. Ve skutečnosti však tento cíl nemá vědeckou oporu a tvrzení, že ho můžeme naplnit, je zcela nepravděpodobné.

Zamezení vzestupu teploty o více než 2°C by vyžadovalo drakonické a okamžité snížení emisí – v případě států OECD by se muselo jednat o snížení o 40-50% pod očekávanou úroveň za pouhých 12 let. I kdyby se pro to dal nalézt politický konsensus, náklady by byly kolosální: jeden model odhaduje, že celkové celosvětové náklady by se pohybovaly kolem 84 bilionů dolarů, zatímco ekonomický přínos by dosáhl pouhé sedminy této částky.

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