shanghai at night Shanghai/Wang Gang/ZumaPress

Новый вопрос  “Двух Китаев”

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Для любого человека старше 60 лет, кто следит за мировыми событиями, термин “два Китая” напоминает соревнование пост – 1949 года за дипломатическое признание, которое вели за материк (“Красный”) Китай и Тайвань, или, более формально, Китайская Народная Республика и Китайская Республика. К началу 1970-х годов, практически каждая страна признала требование  Народной Республики о том, что только она должна быть признана в качестве законного суверенного правительства Китая. Просто материк был слишком велик и слишком важен экономически и стратегически, чтобы его отчуждать.

Сегодня, ставится новый вопрос “двух Китаев”, но совершенно по другому. Он основывается на том, что Китай лучше всего воспринимается как сильная страна, с многообещающим будущим, несмотря на некоторые кратковременные трудности, или как страна сталкивающаяся с серьезными структурными проблемами и неопределенными долгосрочными перспективами. Коротко говоря, теперь можно увидеть проблески двух совершенно разных Китаев. Но какой из них одержит победу?

До недавнего времени, было мало оснований задаваться таким вопросом. Более чем три десятилетия, экономика Китая росла удивительным 10% - ым или выше среднегодовым показателем. Китай обошел Японию, став второй по величине мировой экономикой. Сотни миллионов китайцев вошли в средний класс. Китайская модель авторитарной эффективности казалась привлекательной для многих других развивающихся стран, в частности, в результате глобального финансового кризиса 2008 года, который начался в Соединенных Штатах и, таким образом, казалось бы дискредитировал американский стиль либерального капитализма.

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