shanghai at night Shanghai/Wang Gang/ZumaPress

La Nuova Questione delle “Due Cine”

NEW YORK – A chiunque abbia più di 60 anni, e segua gli eventi internazionali, il termine “due Cine” ricorda la competizione post-1949 per il riconoscimento diplomatico ingaggiata dalla (“Rossa”) Cina continentale e da Taiwan, o, più formalmente, dalla Repubblica Popolare Cinese e dalla Repubblica di Cina. Fin dai primi anni settanta, quasi tutti i paesi erano allineati con la richiesta da parte della Repubblica Popolare perché soltanto ad essa venisse riconosciuto il legittimo governo sovrano della Cina. Il paese continentale era semplicemente troppo grande ed importante, economicamente e strategicamente, per renderselo ostile.

Oggi, sta emergendo una nuova domanda relativa all’esistenza di “due Cine”, tuttavia molto diversa. Ci si interroga se la Cina vada considerata un paese forte, con un futuro promettente, nonostante alcune difficoltà a breve termine, o come un paese di fronte a gravi problemi strutturali e prospettive incerte a lungo termine. In breve, oggi si possono intravedere due Cine molto diverse. Ma quale riuscirà a prevalere?

Fino a poco tempo, non c’era motivo di porre una domanda di questo tipo. Per più di trent’anni, l’economia cinese è cresciuta ad un sorprendente tasso medio annuo del 10%, o anche più elevato. La Cina aveva soppiantato il Giappone quale seconda maggiore economia nazionale mondiale. Centinaia di milioni di cinesi erano entrati nel ceto medio. Il modello cinese di efficienza autoritaria sembrava attraente per molti altri paesi in via di sviluppo, in particolare in seguito alla crisi finanziaria globale del 2008, iniziata negli Stati Uniti e che sembrava quindi screditare il capitalismo liberale “all’americana”.

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